No Coup

Apparently there were some twenty armored personnel vehicles on the street Monday night, causing some in the press to believe that another coup was about to take place.  The army and government both denied the charge, and the vehicles were off the street soon.  The explanation is that they were transporting them for maintenance. 

I'm normally a bit of a skeptic, but I tend to believe them.  There are definitely officers on both sides of the political fight here, but I think the ones in the highest office are much happier with the current government than they ever would be with one run by Thaksin's allies.  This government knows that it owes its existence in part to the military, so I think it will give them a lot of deference.  The military now has influence, without the "burden" of ruling and international pressure they would have if they staged a coup. 

If the red shirts were in power, I would not be so confident.  The army "stayed neutral" when the reds were in power and the yellow shirts seized the government buildings and the airports.  The courts dissolution of successive "red" governments is probably what led some of the smaller parties to form a coalition with the Democrats.  If the courts had not done that, I'm not sure what would have happened.