State of Emergency

Today the Prime Minister declared a state of emergency due to some red shirt protesters invading parliament and disrupting the proceedings.  The MP's and cabinet ministers retreated for their safety.

The state of emergency of emergency gives the government broad powers to temporarily (hopefully) suspend some civil liberties.  It allows the army to detain suspects for up to thirty days without a trial, prohibit news coverage deemed to threaten the public interest, impose curfews and prohibit public gatherings.

In related news, the red shirts are refusing to retreat from either their original protest base of the Phan Fa Bridge, or their new one at the Ratchaprasong intersection.  The government has already issued criminal summons for ten of the red shirt leaders and promises legal action against those who break the law.  Meanwhile, the head of the army has declared that under the current circumstances, the army will not use force to remove the protesters.

All the Marbles?

Former Prime Minister Thaksin and his red shirt clad allies have been on the losing side of many court cases over the past few years. They've seen the courts dissolve two Thaksin-ally led governments, disqualify a number of their members for electoral fraud, and even found Thaksin guilty (of fraud I believe) and sentence him to jail. That does not even count the 111 former Thaksin allies who were banned from politics for five years shortly after the 2006 coup.

Despite these setbacks, the biggest case of all is coming to a head. On February 26th, the Thai Supreme Court will rule on a case involving Thaksin's seventy-six billion baht (about two billion dollars U.S.) fortune. Prosecutors claim that Thaksin abused his position as Prime Minister to enrich himself and his family members. The state is seeking to confiscate the entire fortune. Thaksin and his family, who claim part of the fortune is theirs, are vigorously disputing the governments contentions.

The seizure of these assets would not only take away Thaksin's wealth, but will dramatically weaken him politically. Despite having been deposed, convicted of a crime, and living in exile, Thaksin is still the de facto leader of the Peau Thai party; that is the party with the most members of any party in Parliament. Thaksin's continued power, however, lies in large part with his purse strings. He can control the party by providing the money that they need to get elected. If his fortune is forfeited to the state, I believe that his power will be dramatically weakened.

For his political opponents, I'm sure that nothing would make them happier than to see the courts plunge a metaphorical dagger into the heart of Thaksin. They would very much like to take away his treasure and power. The problem is that there is one other card that this once and perhaps future billionaire holds in his hand. He is very popular with a lot of the people in Thailand, particularly those in the North and Northeast. Thaksin is very much a billoinaire populist.

Thaksin was widely seen as helping the poor during his time as Prime Minister. Whether the corruption charges are true or false, many poor Thai people saw Thaksin as someone who stood up to the Bangkok elite; the wealthy upper class that looked down their noses at their more humble and less educated bretheren. Think about it from their perspective for a second. If old guard can bring down a man like Thaksin, a man who amassed a fortune in the billions and became Prime Minister, what chance does an ordinary farmer have? When men as powerful as Thaksin can be cast aside and stripped of most of what they own, how can a lowly farmer expect to be treated fairly?

The red shirts are going to rally in advance of the court verdict. If Thaksin is routed completely in the courts, his entire assets seized, I think the protests could get ugly.

As far as how the court will rule, I'm not certain. One thing that seems pretty clear is that Thaksin was already incredibly wealthy before he became Prime Minister. Even if he did as the government charges and used his position to enrich himself and his family, it would only account for part of his assets. I know that the prosecutors acknowledge this, but I think their play for the entire fortune is based in some part on lost revenue to the government based on his alleged self-serving deals.

My best guess is that they will find that he abused his position. This is based not so much on the facts of the case but on his track record with the courts. If this happens, it would be in the best interest of Thailand if only a portion of his assets were impounded to the state. I know in an ideal world, judged should perhaps be oblivious to political machinations. Whether that occurs in reality, I cannot say.

The next few weeks should be interesting.

2007 Constitution - Bad for Thailand

One of the stated reasons for the coup and an important principle behind the 2007 Thai Constitution was help eliminate corruption from Thai government. Others more cynical than I may assert that the real reason for the coup is that the country's elite did not like the populist billionaire Thaksin running the show, and that the constitution was drafted to keep him out of power.

Let's assume that the coup leaders and drafters of the Constitution, who were appointed by the coup leaders, really did have Thailand's best interest at heart. The anti-corruption provisions have become little more than a weapon for one's political enemies.

The recent court verdict overturned the current government, and banned thirty-four people from politics for five years. Understand, not all thirty-four of those people did something wrong. If an executive of the party is found to have engaged in electoral fraud, then the entire party leadership is banned from politics. An entire government was thrown out because of fraud on the part of a few people.

This is the second time the court has struck down a prime minister. The court removed PM Samak from office because he had a weekly cooking show on television. They ruled that since he was paid for his effort, this represented outside employment prohibited by the constitution. Perhaps the thought behind the provision was to ensure that the PM was not under the employment, and possible control of his employer. This was a public TV station and it was all out in the open. Instead of ruling that he was not eligible to be PM, they could have ruled that his employment was prohibited and given him the option to resign his show. I'm not advocating this for the benefit of Samak, rather for the benefit of Thailand. It is important for Thailand to have a stable government.

There were some cabinet members under investigation because it was believed that they might not have declared all their credit card debt as required. Others were removed for illegal business dealings.

I think the idea of removing corruption from Thai politics is a noble, if not extraordinarily difficult endeavor. As a tool for doing so, I think the 2007 Constitution is a hammer when a scalpel is needed.

Riding on the Tiger's Back

A few years ago, Tim introduced me to the statement "riding the tiger's back". The phrase refers to doing something dangerous that you are unable to stop without severe consequences. Riding on the back of a tiger is dangerous, but the problems is what happens when you try to get off? At that point you are more likely to serve as the beast's lunch as you are to serve as a good example to others.

She first used the term in reference to those in the bus industry who had ties to the Thai gangs. Once you get involved with them, you can't just decide to stop when you want. Your choices become to go along for the ride or get eaten alive.

People I've spoken to think that maybe the PAD and their opponents are both feeling like they are riding the tiger's back. They have started this protest and confrontation and don't know how to safely extricate themselves, so they keep going. Perhaps they hope that a higher power (I'm not talking divine) will intervene and ask all sides to back down. That would allow everyone to take several steps from the brink without losing face.

Big Rally

The PAD (anti-government, anti-Thaksin) is holding a big rally tomorrow. The potential for violence is certainly there, although hopefully things will work themselves out peacefully.

The labor unions have demanded that the government resign, and has threatened a national strike should their demands be refused. Can you imagine the reaction of the American people, if, at even the depths of President George Bush's approval ratings, if American unions threatened a strike if he didn't resign. People would laugh at them.

Politics Update

Thailand's politics have been up in the air lately. Prime Minister Somchai's government is still in power, although not in possession of the government buildings.

Back in August, PAD (People's Alliance for Democracy) stormed the Prime Minister's building and have occupied it since. PAD is a pro-coup and anti-Thaksin group. It opposes the government elected back in December 2007 claiming that the party in power, the PPP (People's Power Party) is nothing more than a front for the ousted Prime Minister Thaksin. In addition to occupying government buildings, PAD has also blocked streets with its demonstrations.

A cynic might say that PAD should stand for People Against Democracy. They oppose the government duly elected by the Thai people. They are actively trying to bring down a legitimately elected government using force. Interestingly, the government that the PAD seeks would have only thirty percent of Parliament elected by the people. The other seventy percent would be appointed.

In any case, the PAD can be identified by their yellow shirts and the professed love for the King. A few weeks ago, the police clashed with the PAD, resulting in four PAD members dead and a number wounded. This has causes an uproar with the PAD and its supporters who claimed that the police used unnecessary force to deal with the protesters.

Others, this author included, wonder if the police haven't demonstrated remarkable restraint in allowing the occupation of the government buildings for over two months. Imagine for a minute if Republicans marched to Congress and with the intent to occupy the building for several months in order to topple the government. It just wouldn't happen. They would be arrested.

Of course, part of the reason that the protests have been allowed to continue largely unabated is because the PAD have powerful allies in both the military and the police force. The military has made statements of neutrality in the matter. There are some in the police department calling for an end to the protests.

The pro-coup PAD are not the only protesters in town, nor are they the only one with a uniform. The pro-government and pro-Thaksin UDD (United Front of Democracy Against Dictatorship) have also demonstrated and clashed with the PAD. Fortunately, its easy to distinguish the two groups, as the UDD sport red shirts. That's right, its like an episode of Star Trek with the security force against the officers. Yellow versus red.

Since the UDD actually supports the government, they are not attempting to block commerce or interfere with the business of government. Many of their protests are aimed directly at the PAD. The UDD has created its own security force that has named itself King Thaksin's Warriors. Truthfully, I can't think of a more stupid name than that. Most Thai's love and nearly worship the King. One of the declared reasons for the coup was that Thaksin was not respectful of the Monarchy, and that he might even have wanted to supplant it. A great way to turn the average Thai against him is to make it appear that he wants to be the King.

Unfortunately for PM Thaksin, misnamed security forces might be the least of his problems. This week he was convicted of corruption charges and was sentenced to two years in prison. He and his wife are still in England seeking political asylum and fighting extradition. One bit of good news for his family is that his wife was acquitted of the same charges.

While I am a "neutral" observer of this drama, I do find myself sometimes favoring one side over the other. At first, I was somewhat sympathetic to the PAD side of things. I thought that perhaps there may have been merit to the corruption charges against Thaksin. As things have dragged on, however, I really am starting to believe that they are doing much more damage than they the group they oppose. Political instability does not help the economy or average Thai people. Uncertainty can keep away foreign investors and hurt tourism.

I believe that the protests and the disruption of commerce and government need to stop. The PAD should use the political process to achieve its ends. Its coup allies were the ones who drafted the current constitution in the first place. Or should the Thai people expect that anytime they elect a government that the PAD and its allies oppose, that there will be an attempt to other throw the goverment, and possibly another coup.

Dont' get me wrong. I think the pro-Thaksin side has done plenty of dumb things as well. Part of what galvinzed the PAD and anti-government forces was the PPP's decision to amend parts of the constitution. These proposed changes were widely seen as a self-serving attempt by the PPP to remove sanctions against members of the Thaksin goverment. Putting the colorful and opinionated Samak as the head of the government may have caused some issues. Replacing him with Thaksin's brother-in-law only served to further enrage their opponents.


I'll just watch and enjoy. Maybe one day I'll even go down and try to get some good photographs of some action. We'll see.

All in the Family

Alas, I'm not referring to 70's sitcom featuring the iconic Archie Bunker, but rather Thai politics. Today the Thai parliament avoided dissolution and elected PPP deputy leader Somchai Wongsawat as the new PM.

In addition to (or perhaps because of) his role as the deputy leader of the PPP, PM Somchai also had the qualification of being the brother-in-law to deposed PM Thaksin. Of course the PAD protestors are not happy with the decision, decrying Somchai as a Thaksin puppet.

Speaking of Thaksin, today the Thai Supreme Court also delayed the verdict against Thaksin and his wife on a land buying deal. The court postponed the verdict until October 21st, stating that the couple should be present for the verdict.

If anyone has any doubts about the verdict, this should certainly make it clear. The court is certainly not interested in their presence to apologize for wasting their time. I think its pretty clear that a guilty verdict and some jail time are on the way. Given that she has already fled the country after one guilty verdict, the chances of them coming back had the court rendered a guilty verdict are pretty slim.