New PM Abhist

Abhist Vejjajiva mee boon mach mach. That is to say that he is a very lucky man.

Abhist is the handsome, forty-four year old Oxford educated head of the Democrat party here in Thailand, and is now also the new Prime Minister. On Monday, the Democrats and their allies managed to wrest control away from the new Peau Thai party, despite last ditched attempts to sway key members.

Amid stories that bribes and threats were in play to sway the Democrats allies to change sides, the Democrats had the MP's stay in a hotel the night before the vote. They also instructed them to travel in pairs to reduce the likelihood of someone succumbing to pressure.

The coalition held together, and Abhist won the vote 235 to 198. Normally there are 470 members of Parliament, but thirty-six members were disqualified by the court, and one MP died on the eve of the vote.

So what does this mean for Thailand? Will this result in peace? The PAD will not be protesting, as this is what they wanted all along. Will the red shirted Thaksin supporters take to the streets to protest the outcome? I hope that they don't resort to the same level of terror as the yellow shirted PAD.

I think that there will be one difference if the pro-Thaksin supporters engage in anything on the lines of what the PAD did. In my opinion, the military and the police will forcefully intervene to stop it. They might first warn them, but make no mistake. This is the results that many of the military top brass wanted all along. Their coup in 2006 failed to produce a government to their liking. They know another coup would be an absolute disaster for both Thailand and the military itself. There would be no charge of massive corruption to justify a 2008 coup.

The military inaction during the PAD crisis and the comments of the top leadership have made it pretty clear where they stand. Perhaps some of the politicians who once supported Thaksin have concluded that the military will never allow Thaksin and his followers to remain in power.

Calling Mr. Newin

The political winds have changed here recently. Although the Constitutional Court dissolved the PPP party and consequently the PPP led government, the conventional wisdom was that its successor party, the Peua Thai party would form the new government. It seems like one man had a different idea.

After the court dissolved the PPP, most of its members joined the newly formed Peau Thai party. About thirty members joined a party named The Friends of Newin. Newin is a former Thai Lak Thai party executive who is currently serving as a five year ban from politics. Newin was the right hand man of deposed PM Thaksin.

Most people thought that the Friends of Newin would support the Peau Thai's attempt to form a new government. To the surprise of many, including his former mentor, Thaksin, Newin has thrown his party's support behind a coalition with the Democrats. As word leaked of Newin's defection, Thaksin's ex-wife vainly attempted to contact the rogue leader to regain his support. Finally, Thaksin himself phone Newin. Newin told Thaksin that it was over and that he would work with the Democrats.

The Democrats have announced that they have enough seats to form a government in a four party coalition. They are requesting an emergency session of Parliament to elect a new Prime Minister. This would appear to be Democrat leader Abhist.

The Peau Thai have not conceded defeat. They are conducting a full court press to try to win back some of the members of The Friends of Newin. It will be interesting to see how much success they will a proxy for Thaksin and cause further unrest. More cynical people might argue that the Democrats made him an offer that was too good to refuse. Maybe he has concluded that hitching his star to the Thaksin wagon is no longer a good long term choice.

If the Democrats are able to form a government, it will mean that the PAD, the group responsible for shutting down the airport, will not cause unrest. They will be very happy with a Democrat led government.

Of course, Thailand might be trading yellow shirt protesters for red shirted ones. The UDD, supporters of Thaksin, have demonstrated their ability to turn out their followers in mass as well. How will they react to losing power? No one could blame them for thinking that both the courts and the military are against them.

Back during the election last December, I thought that the Democrats would probably be the best for Thailand. During the recent turmoil, however, my opinions changed a bit. The Democrats seemed to offer support for the PAD, chiding the government not to take action. I'm not a big proponent of letting your dog loose to savage the country so that you can save it.

All in the Family

Alas, I'm not referring to 70's sitcom featuring the iconic Archie Bunker, but rather Thai politics. Today the Thai parliament avoided dissolution and elected PPP deputy leader Somchai Wongsawat as the new PM.

In addition to (or perhaps because of) his role as the deputy leader of the PPP, PM Somchai also had the qualification of being the brother-in-law to deposed PM Thaksin. Of course the PAD protestors are not happy with the decision, decrying Somchai as a Thaksin puppet.

Speaking of Thaksin, today the Thai Supreme Court also delayed the verdict against Thaksin and his wife on a land buying deal. The court postponed the verdict until October 21st, stating that the couple should be present for the verdict.

If anyone has any doubts about the verdict, this should certainly make it clear. The court is certainly not interested in their presence to apologize for wasting their time. I think its pretty clear that a guilty verdict and some jail time are on the way. Given that she has already fled the country after one guilty verdict, the chances of them coming back had the court rendered a guilty verdict are pretty slim.