New PM Abhist

Abhist Vejjajiva mee boon mach mach. That is to say that he is a very lucky man.

Abhist is the handsome, forty-four year old Oxford educated head of the Democrat party here in Thailand, and is now also the new Prime Minister. On Monday, the Democrats and their allies managed to wrest control away from the new Peau Thai party, despite last ditched attempts to sway key members.

Amid stories that bribes and threats were in play to sway the Democrats allies to change sides, the Democrats had the MP's stay in a hotel the night before the vote. They also instructed them to travel in pairs to reduce the likelihood of someone succumbing to pressure.

The coalition held together, and Abhist won the vote 235 to 198. Normally there are 470 members of Parliament, but thirty-six members were disqualified by the court, and one MP died on the eve of the vote.

So what does this mean for Thailand? Will this result in peace? The PAD will not be protesting, as this is what they wanted all along. Will the red shirted Thaksin supporters take to the streets to protest the outcome? I hope that they don't resort to the same level of terror as the yellow shirted PAD.

I think that there will be one difference if the pro-Thaksin supporters engage in anything on the lines of what the PAD did. In my opinion, the military and the police will forcefully intervene to stop it. They might first warn them, but make no mistake. This is the results that many of the military top brass wanted all along. Their coup in 2006 failed to produce a government to their liking. They know another coup would be an absolute disaster for both Thailand and the military itself. There would be no charge of massive corruption to justify a 2008 coup.

The military inaction during the PAD crisis and the comments of the top leadership have made it pretty clear where they stand. Perhaps some of the politicians who once supported Thaksin have concluded that the military will never allow Thaksin and his followers to remain in power.