The political winds have changed here recently. Although the Constitutional Court dissolved the PPP party and consequently the PPP led government, the conventional wisdom was that its successor party, the Peua Thai party would form the new government. It seems like one man had a different idea.
After the court dissolved the PPP, most of its members joined the newly formed Peau Thai party. About thirty members joined a party named The Friends of Newin. Newin is a former Thai Lak Thai party executive who is currently serving as a five year ban from politics. Newin was the right hand man of deposed PM Thaksin.
Most people thought that the Friends of Newin would support the Peau Thai's attempt to form a new government. To the surprise of many, including his former mentor, Thaksin, Newin has thrown his party's support behind a coalition with the Democrats. As word leaked of Newin's defection, Thaksin's ex-wife vainly attempted to contact the rogue leader to regain his support. Finally, Thaksin himself phone Newin. Newin told Thaksin that it was over and that he would work with the Democrats.
The Democrats have announced that they have enough seats to form a government in a four party coalition. They are requesting an emergency session of Parliament to elect a new Prime Minister. This would appear to be Democrat leader Abhist.
The Peau Thai have not conceded defeat. They are conducting a full court press to try to win back some of the members of The Friends of Newin. It will be interesting to see how much success they will a proxy for Thaksin and cause further unrest. More cynical people might argue that the Democrats made him an offer that was too good to refuse. Maybe he has concluded that hitching his star to the Thaksin wagon is no longer a good long term choice.
If the Democrats are able to form a government, it will mean that the PAD, the group responsible for shutting down the airport, will not cause unrest. They will be very happy with a Democrat led government.
Of course, Thailand might be trading yellow shirt protesters for red shirted ones. The UDD, supporters of Thaksin, have demonstrated their ability to turn out their followers in mass as well. How will they react to losing power? No one could blame them for thinking that both the courts and the military are against them.
Back during the election last December, I thought that the Democrats would probably be the best for Thailand. During the recent turmoil, however, my opinions changed a bit. The Democrats seemed to offer support for the PAD, chiding the government not to take action. I'm not a big proponent of letting your dog loose to savage the country so that you can save it.
No comments:
Post a Comment