Cold War

Another chapter in the U.S. versus Russia is playing out in a Thai court. The U.S. is attempting to extradite alleged international arms dealer Victor Bout. Bout, a Russian, is reputed to have sold arms to dictators and rebels throughout the world. Bout has been indicted in at least one other country, and the U.N. has banned his travel.

A year ago, Bout was arrested by Thai authorities in a joint sting with the U.S. The reason that he is still sitting in a Thai court and not in the U.S. is that Russia fiercely opposes his extradition. Bout is a Russian citizen, who is alleged to enjoy the protection of the Russian military. Many believe that the Russian military provides him protection and arms, while Bout provides valuable intelligence. If this is true, the Russians are surely loath to have an important intelligence asset fall into U.S. hands. Of course both the Russians and Bout deny this.

Typically the extradition process takes a few weeks. The U.S. and Thailand extradition treaty makes it pretty easy to extradite someone. There have been a number of delays, including illness on the part of Bout's aged attorney. Both the U.S. and Russian embassy personnel are regulars in the court room, and their are allegations that both sides have attempted bribery to secure their desired ruling. The presiding judge has commented on the international diplomatic stakes, and has asked for a statement from the Foreign Ministry.

Ultimately, I believe that the U.S. will win out and extradite Bout. The law is on the U.S.'s side. Additionally, the U.S. has a much more strategic relationship with Thailand than Russia. When it comes down to it, Thailand will act in its own self-interest. That doesn't mean that the process won't drag on, and that concessions might won't be sought. Of course, nothing is certain. This is the legal system where former PM Thaksin's lawyers were convicted of attempting to bribe a judge by leaving a suit case full of money for him.