Thai Elections

This is the political season. I know that some of you might be following the recent Iowa Caucus and the upcoming New Hampshire primary, but I thought I'd let you know about the Thai elections.

I told you a few weeks ago that Thailand was having its first election since the coup on December 23rd. What I didn't tell you at that time was that my brother-in-law was running as an MP (Member of Parliament) candidate for the PPP (People Power Party).

The two major parties contesting the election were the PPP and the Democrats. The PPP consisted of a lot of former Thai Love Thai members (deposed PM's Thaskin's party), while the Democrats were largely seen as the "pro-coup" party. There are a couple of mid sized and a handful of small parties.

Unlike in the U.S. where smaller parties have virtually no influence, here it is quite different. Since the "winning" party often does not garner enough seats to rule outright, they often court mid-sized and smaller parties to form a coalition government. These smaller parties can often have significant leverage when forming a coalition and can garner important cabinet positions.

Well, my brother-in-law did not win his seat. His party, however did win the most seats of any government. The breakdown was:

PPP 229
Democrat 165
Thai Nation Party 37
For the Motherland 25
Thais United 9
Neutral Democratic 7
Royalist's People's 5

These numbers are approximate because I've seen slightly different numbers reported from different sources at different times.

So while the PPP won the most seats, they did not win the 241 needed for an outright majority. The PPP could not form an alliance with the Democrats, and the Thai Nation and Motherland parties are seen as Democrat allies. So the PPP have been courting the three smaller parties. There have been rumblings that if they are able to form the coalition with the three small parties, at least one of the two mid-sized might join as well.

The PPP has a problem that might prevent it from forming a government at all. The Election Commission (EC) is investigating sixty-something PPP candidates for violation of election rules. There are less than 10 candidates from other parties under investigation.

The EC has already disqualified three PPP winners. If more are disqualified, the PPP might not be able to form the coalition.

In addition to difficulty with individual candidates, there have been lawsuits attempting to disqualify the PPP. There are several claims, including that it is an illegal nominee for the outlawed Thai Love Thai party. If it is found guilty it could be dissolved and their chance of forming a government dashed.

The coming weeks should be interesting.