Tuesday, April 22, 2008

Do or Die, Again

So today is the Pennsylvania primary. Don't think for a minute that being on the other side of the world has diminished my interest in the American political process. I am a big fan of sites such as cnn, realclearpolitics, foxnews, and msnbc.

Pennsylvania is pretty much a do or die state for the once but not future presumptive Democratic nominee. Winning Pennsylvania is necessary but not sufficient for Senator to win the nomination. Even is she wins the remaining primaries by large margins, it is nearly impossible for her to overcome Senator Obama's delegate lead.

So if she wins Pennsylvania, what is next? She has to convince the Democrat super delegates that Senator Obama cannot be Senator McCain. If she cannot do that, then she cannot win. The super delegates will only break her way if they think an Obama candicy will result in another four years of a Republican in the White House.

The problem is that if she does manage to win over the super delegates, she will be seen as having overcome the "will of the people" as expressed in the primaries and caucuses where Senator Obama will have more delegates. The question becomes whether this would fracture the party to such an extent that she will lose support going into November.

In any case, I think its all moot. Senator Obama will stay close in Pennsylvania, and enough Democrats super delegates consider him a viable candidate who can defeat Senator McCain. After all there are polls which support this. Of course, after Senator Kerry won Iowa in 2004, a poll showed him ahead of President Bush in a head to head match up. The Democrats immediately embraced Kerry to their later chagrin.

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